EDITOR’S NOTE: Since you should always check the source, this article pulled from December 2010′s edition of Project Management Tipoffs is a taster, not the full cup of coffee. Here, you’ll get a review of 2010, but none of the guest predictions for 2011 that the original space. As I say, go to the source for that!
Without further ado…
What did we get right a year ago predicting project management in 2010? What lies ahead in 2011? Save for one particular predictor from a year ago, Arras People turned to arbiters much more independent than us on both matters.
Ron Rosenhead, last year’s Guest Prognosticator for Tipoffs, veteran of project management training, consulting & coaching: Yes, I made some predictions for 2010. What were they and how did they stack up? This is a summary of what I predicted:
- Have a strong project office focused on ensuring delivery of the overall company strategy
- Have more involvement by senior executives in the project management process and more training for this business critical group
- Develop stronger people skills for project managers
Strong project office
I have certainly seen more project offices being established however I believe the real impact of this will be seen in 2011 when they and already established ones begin to mature even more.
More Involvement by Senior Executives in the project management process and more training for this business critical group
Not too much evidence here that there is more involvement and there has been much training. Interestingly, I have used the Arras People report in February at presentations to senior management showing lack of executive support as the highest reason for project failure.
Develop stronger people skills for project managers
Again, not too much evidence to show this is happening. The interesting and depressing aspect is that on Project Agency courses, we ask what course participants what problems they face in their projects. Around 65% are people issues…
Elizabeth Harrin, A Girl’s Guide to Project Management: Tipoffs’ predictions for 2010 were pretty accurate. We got no news on Chartered status, but plenty of news on how hard it was for people to get new jobs – especially graduates. It certainly feels as if there are more PMO qualified people about, and a renewed focus on the value of PMOs as well. While I was researching my book, Social Media for Project Mangers, I came across recruiters who said they do use the web to screen and source potential candidates, so those who are good at self-promotion in a non-alienating way must be rising to the top of the pack. Projects do continue to fail and I think there will always be projects that fail, but results this year have been mixed. For example, the NAO’s Major Projects report this year says that cost performance has been broadly stable and timescale slippage is significantly reduced on last year.
While I agree that there hasn’t been an awful lot of movement on green-related change, there has been some this year. Rich Maltzman and David Shirley’s new book, Green Project Management, was published this year, with plenty of case studies of projects being run in response to green initiatives. BCS, The Chartered Institute for IT, launched a Green IT certificate and accompanying book. Green is high on the agenda for PMI, with one of this year’s North America Congress speakers being community revitilisation expert Storm Cunningham. The Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme (CRC) started in April this year and I think that as companies start to realise what this will mean for them in terms of their position in the league tables, there will be more green-led change projects during 2011.
Robert Kelly, project manager and blogger for Kelly’s Contemplation: In regards to 2010 predictions, graduates will struggle more then ever – Here in the US, I believe Arras hit the nail on the head. From the ‘inside’ I know that my employer and those of several friends have seen increases across the business markers…market share growth, revenue, etc. The downside, I believe many executives are realizing that they can do this with less headcount. This accurate prediction ties in well with another Arras gem…Self-Marketing candidates will often do better then even more qualified and new graduates. I believe genuine networking and who you know still out ways qualifications, but the self-marketer is really making a push. With Twitter, blogs, LinkedIn, etc there are many ‘experts’ growing their industry reputation.
One thing I have experienced as a miss on Arras’ part is the continued failure of projects.As a result of reduced budgets, headcount, and past failures many executives had to be even more selective and less risky with the projects that they did approve. Additionally, I believe they were somewhat risk averse with regards to aggressiveness of schedules and commitments to the board…under promise and over deliver.
Pawel Brodzinski, Project firefighter, team builder, program manager at blog.brodzinski.com: I’d say that 2010 was more optimistic than the predictions drawn in Tipoffs. One of the reasons is definitely the fact that I looked at the situation from a perspective of a green island on the sea of recession, but I also saw a lot of traction in IT which is always a good indicator of an improving situation. Furthermore, I still see a competency gap, especially in smaller companies, which is slowly but systematically filled with graduates, so I think pessimism in this area was a bit too big. However, since project management is a specific position, which usually bases on experience, it will be never such an easy thing to get an entry-level PM job.
In terms of the success rate of projects I can say that generally little changes. If you look at statistics over the years, you will see that we see similar success rates now as we’ve seen 15 years ago. The rise of PMP hasn’t changed that. Neither did the rise of agile. At this point Tipoffs’ prediction was right, but well, it isn’t that hard to say things aren’t changing for years so they won’t change next year either (you’ll see that in my predictions for 2011).
Subscribe to Project Management Tipoffs today to get a free edition of the Portfolio Management February issue in your inbox today. If you miss the initial mail out yesterday, don’t worry – we’ll resend in to you just for signing up!
